New Poll: McCain sans Mitt beats Obama in Michigan
By Mark Kilmer Posted in 2008 | McCain | Michigan | Obama — Comments (9) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
John McCain is beating Barry in Michigan, according to a new poll conducted by EPIC-MRA, but there is a caveat.
The poll, commissioned by Detroit's WXYZ-Action News, was of 600 likely Michigan voters, and the margin of error is four points. It showed McCain leading Obama by the margin, 44% - 40%. Among Michigan independents, McCain puts on the hurt, pulling ahead of Obama by thirteen points, 41% to 28%.
However, if Obama picks Hillary as his running mate and McCain selects, for the sake of argument, "native Michigander" Mitt Romney, the Dem ticket trounces the GOP, 51% to 44%. Hillary boosts Obama, while Romney does nothing for McCain. That's the caveat.
A lot is going to happen between now and Election Day. For all we know, Hillary may have toned her campaign down by then, and Obama might have found away to remove his foot from his mouth, his head from behind, and begun articulating clear and consistent positions. Obama might make a wild-eyed promise to bail out the automobile industry and draw new automotive jobs to the United States.
So, if he chooses the right running mate, McCain could grab Michigan's 17 Electoral Votes this November. With his home State of Arizona's ten electors, that more than makes up for the 21 votes Obama will win in Illinois, called home by Obama, Jeremiah Wright, and Billy Ayers.
Michigan was one of Romney's home States. Illinois is Obama's home State. Arizona is McCain's.
It's an early poll, but it is encouraging.
Obama and Hillary together are formidable. With Mitt, McCain is down seven. With another Republican on the ticket, McCain would be down even more. If he selected someone like Huckabee, he'd be getting creamed. At least Mitt keeps McCain viable in Michigan.
viable in Michigan without Romney. With Romney, he falls to an Obama-Hillary ticket.
There was no polling with Huckabee, and I assume they chose to poll with Michigan because Michigan once had a governor named Romney.
The poll indicates that McCain is viable in Michigan against Obama - not Obama/Hillary. The McCain/Mitt ticket was paired with Obama/Hillary. We do not know how McCain polled against Obama/Hillary. Hillary brings in all the Reagan Democrat Union voters. That's the difference. Romney still holds sway in Michigan. He beat McCain there for one.
and promising a federal bailout of the automobile industry. And by sending mailers with untruths about McCain's stances and record.
The poll indicates that he adds nothing to the McCain ticket if Hillary is Obama's veep, and I feel safe in extrapolating that Romney adds nothing against any Dem ticket.
Romney outspent McCain 3-1 in Michigan. He hasn't spent a dime there in a while, and he won't be able to spend any independently if he were McCain's veep choice. Any mailers would also be controlled by the McCain campaign, and McCain has not campaigned like that.
Really, though, this is all hypothetical.
A McCain lead of 44% to 40% for Obama does not mean that McCain will win MI unless all 16% of the undecideds vote third party. Any polling that shows both candidates below 50% means that the state is up for grabs.
As for the VP pairings, did they test Obama/Clinton against any other McCain pairing? Did they test McCain/Romney against any other Obama pairing? Will any McCain VP help against Obama/Clinton?
that McCain is leading Obama in an early poll. The story mentioned no other possible GOP tickets as a part of the poll, so I assumed they used Romney because Michigan once had a governor named Romney.
What does 'make up for the 21 votes Obama will in in IL' mean?
IL has always been a reliable blue state for the past few presidential election cycles, McCain does not need to make up for a loss in IL.
If McCain can win Michigan, it's going to be a landslide defeat for democrats....